DBS Bank: The Fed's rate cut will be smaller than market expectations

According to Odaily Planet Daily, DBS Bank Chief Economist Taimur Baig stated that despite market expectations of three rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2025 and three more next year, the bank expects the Fed to cut rates only twice in 2025 and only once in 2026. The bank maintains that the current rate-cutting cycle will stagnate after a cumulative 100 basis points of cuts. Baig pointed out that US tariff policies, a tight labor market caused by immigration controls, tax cuts, strong household and corporate finances, a surge in AI-related energy demand, and a continued rise in the stock market will all trigger inflation risks. Given that current inflationary pressures are higher than a year ago, he believes that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s mainstream view on a 3.5% terminal rate will be difficult to shake. (Jinshi)