Fed officials may seriously consider raising rates by 50 basis points

On February 7, it was reported that the U.S. job market was scorching hot, with the unemployment rate falling below 4% for only a few periods in the last century. FOMC forecasts suggest that the committee is betting that inflation will behave like it did in 2018-20, when the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, without putting too much upward pressure on prices. That may be one reason Fed officials distanced themselves from the possibility of a 50 basis point rate hike in March. But the latest slew of fiery labor market data, including upward revisions to nonfarm payrolls, job openings and resignations, all point to what could be the tightest job market in a century. There are signs that the worst of the Omicron outbreak is over. All factors taken together, Fed officials may seriously consider raising rates by 50 basis points at their March meeting.