JPMorgan: Bond traders overpriced Fed hawkishness

Global market prices are pricing in a wave of aggressive monetary tightening this year, but that wave is unlikely to materialize in full, boosting the appeal of stocks tied to the economic cycle, JPMorgan strategists said on Feb. 15. With the Fed expected to raise interest rates for the first time in three years in March, yields on two-year U.S. Treasuries have surged more than 80 basis points to their highest level since late 2019. That has intensified competition for global capital and hit high-valued assets such as tech stocks and junk bonds. In our view, risk asset markets have largely adjusted for changes in monetary policy, and short-term interest rate markets may have already priced in a lot more than the Fed may ultimately raise rates this year.